Russia has officially begun attacks on Ukraine. In the twenty-first century, this is outrageous to people around the globe. Vladimir Putin, the essential dictator of Russia, spearheaded these decisions. For reference, Russia has the second most powerful military in the world, after the United States. Ukraine ranks 22nd. Without intervention from other countries, eventually, Ukraine will cease to exist. Russia will have taken back control over it- a nightmarish scenario for the Ukrainian people, who are currently begging for help, along with their government, from other countries. 

The problem is that other countries are, to say the least, hesitant to become involved. While in no way demeaning the crisis and evil of the Russian president (who warned countries not to intervene), what seems to be the next step if intervention occurs is an inevitable third world war, which nobody wants for many reasons. For one thing, it is arguable to say that countries such as Japan and Germany have not yet recovered from the second world war. Effects of radiation from the atomic bomb are still making themselves known in Japan, while Germany, who are often seen as the aggressors of both world wars, will obviously not want to become involved for a hat trick. The United States is similarly hesitant, but for a different reason. When our occupation in Afghanistan ended, the Taliban immediately took over, causing controversy which probably aged every occupied seat in Congress twenty years (which is coincidentally as long as our military stayed there to achieve nothing as an end result). Lastly, in general, countries are drained and recovering from the pandemic. Nobody would want to enter a war, especially one that isn’t theirs, at this time, seeing as the financial situations of countries are only now beginning to slowly recover from the draining forces of the work crisis and supply-chain backup of the past two years. So what exactly are countries doing, then?

Sanctions

Sanctions are economic bans of trade imposed on a country by another country, usually as a result of political disagreement as an alternative to war. Countries around the globe are responding to Russia’s attacks with economic measures to avoid having to involve troops. Currently, sanctions around the globe target banks, military exports, and oil refineries. Focusing on the US, sanctions are targeting, first and foremost, Russian banks. Russia’s two largest banks, Sberbank and VTB Bank, are targeted the most severely. US banks have 30 days to completely cut ties with Sberbank, specifically. Washington officials sanctioned other banks, such as VTB, Otkritie, Novikombank, and Sovcombank, by “Effectively [kicking] the banks out of the US financial system, [banning] their trade with Americans, and [freezing] their US assets,” according to List of Sanctions Against Russia After Ukraine’s Invasion. The US also sanctioned 13 major Russian enterprises, such as Gazprom, RusHydro, and Russian Railways, as well as Russian elites invested in various major companies, among which the Russian president himself is heavily invested in.

Japan imposed sanctions on military equipment exports and financial institutions. The United Kingdom released a ten-point sanctions package similar to the United States’ in that Russian banks’ assets would be frozen and unable to raise finance in the UK. Additionally, “Britain will also ban Russia’s flagship airline Aeroflot from landing in the UK, suspend dual export licenses to Russia, and ban exports of some high-tech exports and parts of the extractive industry” (List of Sanctions Against Russia After Ukraine’s Invasion). Other countries with sanctions include Taiwan, Canada, and, of course, Ukraine.

The biggest sanction that will be imposed in the coming days is the cutoff of major Russian banks from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide International Financial Telecommunication). SWIFT is a messaging system that, loosely defined, makes trade/ transactions across borders into different currencies flow smoothly and easily. It is a somewhat center for trade/banking, meaning that if Russian banks are cut off, banks around the world will cease transactions with them. This will deal a major blow to the Russian economy as it will make it much more difficult for Russian companies to do international business and grow.  In the words of a senior U.S. administration official, “Putin’s government is getting kicked off the international financial system.” 

Why the Sanctions Probably Will Not Work

Russia’s social classes look like a dystopian novel- mainly everybody is poor, with the elites and few tyrants on the top of the social pyramid. History beginning from the early days of the Soviet Czars continues to repeat itself, with the people of Russia being looked at as lesser subjects to rule instead of Enlightenment-influenced ideas of citizens being the primary objective of a government. The truth is, Putin simply doesn’t care about his people. He wants more- more people to rule, more land, more oil, more resources. Sanctions have been set against Russia for years- but they only land blows to the people, not the government, not Putin. These sanctions will only work in one respect- they will deal a great blow to the economy, which will fall and crumble at the callused feet of the Russian people. “Russia has always treated the poor as peasants,” says Peter Tchir, head of global macro strategy at New York-based financial firm Academy Securities.

Not only this, but Russia is the biggest supplier of oil in Europe, as well as one of the largest in the world. According to Why Sanctions on Russia Won’t Work, “Europe… gets around a third of its natural gas from Russia. The gas is used for home heating as well as electricity generation across the continent.” To put it shortly, Europe is almost completely incapable of surviving without Russia’s energy supply. Similarly, Russia is almost incapable of surviving without Europe’s funding. Citing the same article, “Revenue from energy exports accounts for approximately 40% of the country’s federal budget.” The problem is that Europe will not be able to impose overly severe sanctions on Russia, seeing as they need Russia just as much as Russia needs them. It creates a tricky situation for Europe, who are obviously highly industrialized and depend on this energy to a very large extent.

What Will Happen

For a fact, Russia’s economy will be dealt a large blow, and, consecutively, so will their people. The situation for the citizens of Russia will become far from envious. However, there is only so much sanctions can do, so this will not be enough to stop Putin and his prospects, for which he has been preparing for, doubtless, multiple years. Ukraine will experience the worst situation it has ever been in. Ukraine has just will, while Russia has might. While will is impressionable, with Ukrainian forces refusing to surrender, it means further catastrophe for Ukraine. The country cannot win in this situation. Other countries will not help. Ukraine, eventually, will ruthlessly be destroyed. Putin will not care what condition he finally gets the country in, as long as he gets it. 

Wars never end happily, and in this case, it is no different. For the people of both countries, the next months, and even years, will be exponentially challenging at the very least. Prayers for Ukraine and its people now and the time to come.